Online vs. Live Poker: Insights from the Live Poker Database
In this article, we dive into the Live Poker Database to uncover insights that’ll help you prepare for your next live session.
Table of contents:
- Deeper stack sizes and higher variance
Fewer hands
In online poker, you typically play 60 to 100 hands per hour at a single table. In live games, that number drops to just 20 to 25 hands per hour — or roughly one hand every 3 minutes. Honestly, I expected it to be even slower, but it’s still about 10 times slower than playing four tables online.
However, the slower pace of live poker gives you more to work with — more time, more tells, more notes. And because it’s mentally less demanding, you can play for 12 hours straight or more.
That means higher win rates, smaller swings, and even more profit than online. Stick with me — I’ll show you how.
Higher win rates
Higher win rates make up for the slower pace of live poker.
We selected 242 tight-aggressive players (TAGs), with a combined total of around 500,000 hands played. Here are the key insights:
1. Their total win rate is 51 EV bb/100 — roughly equivalent to 15 big blinds per hour.
2. Here’s the breakdown by stakes:
| Stakes, NLH | Sample Hands | EV Won | EV bb/100 | EV Won $/hour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $2–5 | 52k | $306k | 95 | $118 |
| $5–10 | 105k | $638k | 56 | $140 |
| $10–25 | 38k | $394k | 41 | $256 |
| $25–50 | 123k | $2.28m | 37 | $462 |
| $50–100 | 58k | $2.2m | 35 | $875 |
| $100–200 | 56k | $5.97m | 49 | $2,450 |
Variance still affects the data, but it already gives a consistent picture of actual win rates.
Interestingly, $2-5 No Limit Hold’em games are so soft that win rates are close to those at $5-10. The question of whether to play $2-5 or $5-10 still remains open 🙂
TAGs play looser
We filtered TAG players based on their VPIP/PFR stats.
Style="max-width: 356px;"
Path="/images/online-vs-live-poker-insights/tag-stats.png"
Caption="Multi-player filter for TAGs in Hand2Note Reports."/>
Here are the key insights:
1. VPIP/PFR of a winning player is 31/20 on average. Some solid winning players play even looser — with stats like 37/21. For example, Garrett “Gman” Adelstein, one of the strongest pros in the database, runs at 34/24 over a sample of 9,000 hands.
Solid players can play more hands preflop in live poker than online, thanks to deeper stacks, more multiway pots, and generally weaker opponents.
2. Win rate is 51 EV bb/100. Take a look at the selected players' winnings graph (in big blinds):
Path="/images/online-vs-live-poker-insights/winnings-graph.png"
Caption="Winning graph of 242 combined TAG players from the Live Poker Database."/>
The graph looks stable, so variance isn’t a big factor. Note that we didn’t filter by win rate — only by VPIP/PFR — and still ended up with winning players.
3. Aggression was 1.6 and WWSF was 40% — both much lower than online. That’s mostly because of multiway pots. When three or more players see the flop, it’s hard to bet or raise if you miss.
4. The 3-bet frequency is 13%, which is quite high. In online poker, the average is around 8–10%. Why do good players 3-bet more in live games? Because cold call ranges are much wider, making 3-bets more valuable — often the only way to isolate weak players and avoid multiway pots.
5. Call vs. 4-bet is 40%, which is wider than what we typically see online. That’s because live games often have much deeper stacks. You need to be ready to play 4-bet pots postflop with stacks up to 1,000 big blinds — and with the Live Poker Database, you can practice exactly those spots.
More weak players
Most online poker tables contain just one recreational player. But that’s not the case in live poker.
We used the Number of Fish report in the Live Poker Database to gain insights into the number of recreational players at live poker tables.
At lower stakes like $2–$5 or $5–$10, 90% of tables had at least two obvious fish, and 57% had between three and five. Here’s what the VPIP/PFR stats typically look like at a $5–$10 table:
Path="/images/online-vs-live-poker-insights/typical-5-10-table.png"
Caption="A typical $5–$10 live cash game table has 2 to 4 weak players."
Surprisingly, higher stakes aren't much tighter. Most $50–$100 tables still include 2–5 loose, weak players. Take a look at this $50–$100 table, for example:
Path="/images/online-vs-live-poker-insights/50-100-with-many-fishes.png"
Caption="$50–$100 games aren’t much tighter. For example, this $50–$100 No-Limit Hold’em cash table has 5 weak players."/>
These filters work well for identifying solid tight-aggressive players in live poker:
- VPIP ≤ 38
- PFR between 13 and 38
- VPIP – PFR \< 20
- 30 hands or more
More multiway pots
Most postflop situations in online poker are heads-up, but in live games, multiway pots are much more common.
Here’s the distribution of flops based on the number of players seeing them.
| Number of players on flop | Hands | Share |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | 109k | 45% |
| 3 | 71k | 24% |
| 4 or more | 59k | 31% |
Most postflop pots in live poker are multiway—and nearly a third involve four or more players.
I’d definitely study a variety of multiway spots before heading to my next live session.
More straddles and antes
At live cash tables, players often post straddles.
Variance in straddle games is twice as high as in games without a straddle at the same stakes and ante. We confirmed this using a sample from our database. To play straddle games, you’ll need twice the bankroll — for every added straddle level.
How do we use it? For example, which stakes are higher: $2–5 with a straddle or $5–10 without a straddle? The answer is—they’re equal, because their variance is equal.
85% of lower-stakes games ($2–5 or $5–10) include a straddle, while at higher stakes, only 65% of games have a straddle.
As for antes, 60% of lower-stakes games run without an ante, while 80% of higher-stakes games include one. Variance is 1.5x higher at tables with an ante.
Rare folds to 3-bets
In online games, a 3-bet often ends the hand. In live games, that’s not the case.
When a tight-aggressive player makes a 3-bet in live poker:
- All opponents fold preflop only 26% of the time.
- Moreover, in 28% of cases, a player behind responds with either a cold call or an open 4-bet.
You see fewer folds in live poker, mainly because of weaker players and deeper stacks.
Deeper stacks sizes and higher variance
Stacks are insanely deep in live games. Here's the stack size distribution for stakes of $5-10 and below.
| Stack Size, BBs | Hands | EV Win Rate, bb/100 | Variance, BBs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–300 | 20k | 57 | 50 |
| 300–600 | 57k | 67 | 66 |
| 600–1000 | 52k | 98 | 87 |
| 1000–2000 | 49k | 78 | 114 |
| 2000+ | 22k | 113 | 379 |
You’ll rarely sit with less than 300bb. Most of the time, you’ll play with stacks between 500 and 1000bb.
Variance in online poker is about 10 big blinds. With straddles and deep stacks, variance in live poker is about 10 times higher — so you’ll need roughly 10x the bankroll for the same stakes. But higher win rates in live games help balance it out.
Get ready for huge pots and aggressive straddles. Take a look at this hand: every player but one has a stack over 1000bb. With three straddles, it effectively plays like a $50-100 game.
Path="/images/online-vs-live-poker-insights/5-10-deep-stack-sizes.png"
Caption="$5–10 NLH cash game with three straddles and deep stacks — everyone but one has 1000+ bb."/>
Conclusion
While the sample size is still limited, we can already draw some reliable conclusions:
1. Game speed in live poker is \~25 hands per hour. But the higher win rates and weaker opponents make up for the slower pace.
2. Your hourly rate can reach $100–$200 at lower stakes like $2-5, and up to $1000+ at higher stakes.
3. Variance in live poker is 10 times higher than online at the same stakes.
4. Deep stacks, multiway pots, and multiple straddles create unique spots with tough, expensive decisions you’ve likely never faced before. You need to be ready.
So, what now? I’d start getting ready for my next live session with the Live Poker Database: open a hand in the replayer, hide the cards, follow the action, and try to read what everyone’s holding.
Read Next:
What is the Live Poker Database? How can you use it?
Online vs. Live Poker: Insights from Live Poker Database
Have you ever thought about switching from online to live poker? Many online players feel unsure about what to expect. How much can you win? How big should your bankroll be? How do you prepare?
In this article, we dive into the Live Poker Database to uncover insights that’ll help you prepare for your next live session.
Table of contents:
- Deeper stack sizes and higher variance
Fewer hands
In online poker, you typically play 60 to 100 hands per hour at a single table. In live games, that number drops to just 20 to 25 hands per hour — or roughly one hand every 3 minutes. Honestly, I expected it to be even slower, but it’s still about 10 times slower than playing four tables online.
However, the slower pace of live poker gives you more to work with — more time, more tells, more notes. And because it’s mentally less demanding, you can play for 12 hours straight or more.
That means higher win rates, smaller swings, and even more profit than online. Stick with me — I’ll show you how.
Higher win rates
Higher win rates make up for the slower pace of live poker.
We selected 242 tight-aggressive players (TAGs), with a combined total of around 500,000 hands played. Here are the key insights:
1. Their total win rate is 51 EV bb/100 — roughly equivalent to 15 big blinds per hour.
2. Here’s the breakdown by stakes:
| Stakes, NLH | Sample Hands | EV Won | EV bb/100 | EV Won $/hour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $2–5 | 52k | $306k | 95 | $118 |
| $5–10 | 105k | $638k | 56 | $140 |
| $10–25 | 38k | $394k | 41 | $256 |
| $25–50 | 123k | $2.28m | 37 | $462 |
| $50–100 | 58k | $2.2m | 35 | $875 |
| $100–200 | 56k | $5.97m | 49 | $2,450 |
Variance still affects the data, but it already gives a consistent picture of actual win rates.
Interestingly, $2-5 No Limit Hold’em games are so soft that win rates are close to those at $5-10. The question of whether to play $2-5 or $5-10 still remains open 🙂
TAGs play looser
We filtered TAG players based on their VPIP/PFR stats.
Style="max-width: 356px;"
Path="/images/online-vs-live-poker-insights/tag-stats.png"
Caption="Multi-player filter for TAGs in Hand2Note Reports."/>
Here are the key insights:
1. VPIP/PFR of a winning player is 31/20 on average. Some solid winning players play even looser — with stats like 37/21. For example, Garrett “Gman” Adelstein, one of the strongest pros in the database, runs at 34/24 over a sample of 9,000 hands.
Solid players can play more hands preflop in live poker than online, thanks to deeper stacks, more multiway pots, and generally weaker opponents.
2. Win rate is 51 EV bb/100. Take a look at the selected players' winnings graph (in big blinds):
Path="/images/online-vs-live-poker-insights/winnings-graph.png"
Caption="Winning graph of 242 combined TAG players from the Live Poker Database."/>
The graph looks stable, so variance isn’t a big factor. Note that we didn’t filter by win rate — only by VPIP/PFR — and still ended up with winning players.
3. Aggression was 1.6 and WWSF was 40% — both much lower than online. That’s mostly because of multiway pots. When three or more players see the flop, it’s hard to bet or raise if you miss.
4. The 3-bet frequency is 13%, which is quite high. In online poker, the average is around 8–10%. Why do good players 3-bet more in live games? Because cold call ranges are much wider, making 3-bets more valuable — often the only way to isolate weak players and avoid multiway pots.
5. Call vs. 4-bet is 40%, which is wider than what we typically see online. That’s because live games often have much deeper stacks. You need to be ready to play 4-bet pots postflop with stacks up to 1,000 big blinds — and with the Live Poker Database, you can practice exactly those spots.
More weak players
Most online poker tables contain just one recreational player. But that’s not the case in live poker.
We used the Number of Fish report in the Live Poker Database to gain insights into the number of recreational players at live poker tables.
At lower stakes like $2–$5 or $5–$10, 90% of tables had at least two obvious fish, and 57% had between three and five. Here’s what the VPIP/PFR stats typically look like at a $5–$10 table:
Path="/images/online-vs-live-poker-insights/typical-5-10-table.png"
Caption="A typical $5–$10 live cash game table has 2 to 4 weak players."
Surprisingly, higher stakes aren't much tighter. Most $50–$100 tables still include 2–5 loose, weak players. Take a look at this $50–$100 table, for example:
Path="/images/online-vs-live-poker-insights/50-100-with-many-fishes.png"
Caption="$50–$100 games aren’t much tighter. For example, this $50–$100 No-Limit Hold’em cash table has 5 weak players."/>
These filters work well for identifying solid tight-aggressive players in live poker:
- VPIP ≤ 38
- PFR between 13 and 38
- VPIP – PFR \< 20
- 30 hands or more
More multiway pots
Most postflop situations in online poker are heads-up, but in live games, multiway pots are much more common.
Here’s the distribution of flops based on the number of players seeing them.
| Number of players on flop | Hands | Share |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | 109k | 45% |
| 3 | 71k | 24% |
| 4 or more | 59k | 31% |
Most postflop pots in live poker are multiway—and nearly a third involve four or more players.
I’d definitely study a variety of multiway spots before heading to my next live session.
More straddles and antes
At live cash tables, players often post straddles.
Variance in straddle games is twice as high as in games without a straddle at the same stakes and ante. We confirmed this using a sample from our database. To play straddle games, you’ll need twice the bankroll — for every added straddle level.
How do we use it? For example, which stakes are higher: $2–5 with a straddle or $5–10 without a straddle? The answer is—they’re equal, because their variance is equal.
85% of lower-stakes games ($2–5 or $5–10) include a straddle, while at higher stakes, only 65% of games have a straddle.
As for antes, 60% of lower-stakes games run without an ante, while 80% of higher-stakes games include one. Variance is 1.5x higher at tables with an ante.
Rare folds to 3-bets
In online games, a 3-bet often ends the hand. In live games, that’s not the case.
When a tight-aggressive player makes a 3-bet in live poker:
- All opponents fold preflop only 26% of the time.
- Moreover, in 28% of cases, a player behind responds with either a cold call or an open 4-bet.
You see fewer folds in live poker, mainly because of weaker players and deeper stacks.
Deeper stacks sizes and higher variance
Stacks are insanely deep in live games. Here's the stack size distribution for stakes of $5-10 and below.
| Stack Size, BBs | Hands | EV Win Rate, bb/100 | Variance, BBs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–300 | 20k | 57 | 50 |
| 300–600 | 57k | 67 | 66 |
| 600–1000 | 52k | 98 | 87 |
| 1000–2000 | 49k | 78 | 114 |
| 2000+ | 22k | 113 | 379 |
You’ll rarely sit with less than 300bb. Most of the time, you’ll play with stacks between 500 and 1000bb.
Variance in online poker is about 10 big blinds. With straddles and deep stacks, variance in live poker is about 10 times higher — so you’ll need roughly 10x the bankroll for the same stakes. But higher win rates in live games help balance it out.
Get ready for huge pots and aggressive straddles. Take a look at this hand: every player but one has a stack over 1000bb. With three straddles, it effectively plays like a $50-100 game.
Path="/images/online-vs-live-poker-insights/5-10-deep-stack-sizes.png"
Caption="$5–10 NLH cash game with three straddles and deep stacks — everyone but one has 1000+ bb."/>
Conclusion
While the sample size is still limited, we can already draw some reliable conclusions:
1. Game speed in live poker is \~25 hands per hour. But the higher win rates and weaker opponents make up for the slower pace.
2. Your hourly rate can reach $100–$200 at lower stakes like $2-5, and up to $1000+ at higher stakes.
3. Variance in live poker is 10 times higher than online at the same stakes.
4. Deep stacks, multiway pots, and multiple straddles create unique spots with tough, expensive decisions you’ve likely never faced before. You need to be ready.
So, what now? I’d start getting ready for my next live session with the Live Poker Database: open a hand in the replayer, hide the cards, follow the action, and try to read what everyone’s holding.
Read Next:
What is the Live Poker Database? How can you use it?
